With surging fuel prices and uncertainty impacting world economies, Ian Bremmer gives his outlook on the severity and duration of the Iran conflict. Bremmer is a Nantucket summer resident and is the founder of geopolitical risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, which provides research analysis on global affairs. According to Bremmer, the tumult of the international oil market resulting from the war in Iran is the biggest disruption of global energy in world history. Bremmer expresses his viewpoint that President Trump, after coming off a victory in Venezuela, has seriously miscalculated his incursions into Iran and that the resulting effects could be prolonged. N Magazine sat down with Bremmer to discuss the current world situation in the first of our new regular section called Financial NSights.

When was the last time the world has been as turbulent as it is now?

IAN BREMMER: The beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The difference is this time it’s self-inflicted, but it’s similar in that we have a massive global shock to supply chains and long-term knock-on effects to the global economy. The pandemic in some ways was much worse because so many of us had no idea what it would mean for our personal well-being. We don’t have that issue with Iran. Iran does not pose an existential threat to humanity or to the United States.

As for the international oil market, how deep have the impacts gone already and how long does it take before the damage becomes severe?

BREMMER: I think the damage is already severe. This is the biggest disruption of global energy in world history. The fact is that the Iranians now have functional veto power over the Strait [of Hormuz], and it does not appear there is any way to stop that absent escalation. You could have a ceasefire tomorrow and stop the fighting, but the Iranians would still be able with the drones that they have to prevent tankers from going through [the Strait]unless those tankers have an agreement with the Islamic Republic, and that’s not seen as acceptable to the U.S. You’ve got a serious problem and you don’t have any near-term answer.

Was attacking Iran a miscalculation by Trump?

BREMMER: Absolutely. It was the biggest foreign policy mistake he’s made. It comes off the back of enormous success in Venezuela, which went as well as anyone could have imagined, militarily, economically and politically. Trump was enormously confident on the back of that success. He has also been constrained on tariffs, has affordability problems in the U.S., is underwater with the American people on inflation and the economy, is backing down on China after they hit him hard, and the Supreme Court overruled him on [tariffs]. When you put all of that together, suddenly he’s asking what’s his next win, so he goes for Iran. The decision wasn’t made by Israel orby his advisors; it was made by him. He was convinced that once the supreme leader was killed—someone who was making it impossible to have negotiations—and that their military leadership was killed and their capabilities were taken out, that we would have a Venezuela outcome. Trump wasn’t worried about [the Strait of Hormuz]because his thought was once we get rid of these leaders, there’s going to be a whole bunch of people begging to work with us.

The term “stagflation” is associated with the Carter administration. Are we going to see something similar for some time?

BREMMER: This is going to have long-term knock-on effects for the global economy and will hurt the poorest countries the most. When you don’t have fertilizer during the growing season, food prices go way up. You’re going to have diesel and oil shortages in the poorest countries. In the United States, we’re going to see inflation go up. I’m not sure that’s a recession, but it’s an extended very unhappy U.S. population with where gas prices are. You’re shutting down not just the transit of energy but the products of that energy—it’s helium coming out of Qatar, it’s plastics with petrochemicals, it’s cheap textiles made with polyester that we buy as inexpensive clothing, it’s consumer packaging and auto parts. It’s going to take months for this to affect prices, but once it happens, it’s going to be very tricky.

When prices go up as a result of oil shocks, can we expect them to comedown to previous levels?

BREMMER: Probably not completely. It depends on what kind of damage is done to infrastructure over course of the war, as we have already seen with [liquified natural gas] in Qatar, as well as the extent of continued disruption.

Is there any room for the FederalReserve to lower interest rates?

BREMMER: [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] said no. That’s one more constraint on Trump and something he’s not going to be able to move in his direction. The big thing and what is so surprising about all of this compared to the pandemic is that this is purely a war of choice. There was no urgency to this, no imminent threat to the United States. While Iran does represent a threat, the easy thing to do would have been to order a repeat of the 12-Day War [between Israel and Iran] last year, which would have, in turn, elicited none of the extraordinary destructive behavior we have seen from the Iranians.

Is China reveling in the situation that we now find ourselves in?

BREMMER: They don’t like the economic disruption and the major risks from escalation. But they certainly don’t mind the United States taking military capabilities out of Asia or the opportunity [for China] to be seen as less unreliable given the present perceptions of the United States and its leadership.

Equating this conflict to a baseball game, what inning are we in?

BREMMER: Maybe the third or fourth inning. The first inning was pretty big. When you assassinate the supreme leader, you’re coming out and putting some runs on the board. It’s a high scoring game. Then Israel hits [Iran’s] energy field, and the Iranians do $20 billion of damage to Qatari [liquified natural gas], which will take three yearsto get back online. They’re putting a lot of runs on the board. We’re not close to a situation where ships are going through the strait. Right now, the only ships that are passing through the strait without being contested are Iranian ships. So for day-to-day life in America, things are likely to get more costly.

If there is no quick resolution in sight to the Iran conflict, what are our exit options?

BREMMER: The United States can stop the fighting and leave a coalition of the willing to negotiate transit of the strait with the Iranians. That leaves Iran devastated from the war but in a stronger geopolitical position than they entered it—not President Trump’s intention. That is why escalation remains likely, even after Trump has so many times said this war will be over in a few more days or weeks.

The economy is generally the biggest concern in an election. How will this affect the midterms?

BREMMER: Goods will get more costly because the supply chain has already been disrupted. It takes time for these things. We know costs are going up; it’s not a question of maybe they will. The likelihood that Trump is going to get pasted during the midterms is very high. It’s a layup that he loses the House in a big way. The Senate is a heavier lift, but it’s now in play. [After the midterms] Trump will become more of a lame duck. Republicans will leave him because they understand they want a future. A president [who will be] 80 with historic unpopularity who has just lost the midterms is not going to do much for their future. The presidential Republican primary is going to be much more competitive as a consequence of that, and we’ll see that immediately after November.